DAYTON — We are entering into another very dry pattern. I’ve been monitoring our computer models and here’s when I think our next soaking rain arrives.
High pressure is the opposite of rain, and it is going to be our dominant weather maker. That means it’s going to be dry and rather warm all week long.
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Computer models are just predictions of what may happen. After around 1 week out from a model start time, they can really fall off in accuracy. So when watching the models in the 2 week range, it is generally for watching trends of what may loom on the horizon. When models show the same patterns, that is a sign of higher confidence.
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Both the major models, the EMCWF and GFS, both show us bone dry through at least the middle of October. While we may see some small rain chances arrive after this upcoming weekend, we may be waiting a few more weeks for another good decent rainfall. That is definitely not great for our ongoing drought issues.
