DAYTON — An area of low pressure is on track to move right over the Miami Valley this afternoon and evening. Rain will come in waves. The first round moves through this morning. Everything at this point will be sub-severe. Heavy rains and the occational rumble of thunder will be the biggest conern at this point.
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The question is if we get any breaks in the clouds. If we do, the warmth will enhance the risk for stronger storms. Right now, it looks as though the skies will remain overcast. However, the center of the low will move overhead and this will allow for spin reguardless of any extra energy.
This means that brief isolated torandoes are still possible. The threat is extremely low, but can’t be ruled out.
Damaging straight line winds are the biggest threat with gusts forecast over 60 MPH with an isolated storm.
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has I70 and south under a level 2 of 5, a slight risk for severe storms between 1 PM and 11PM this evening. North of I70 under a level 1 of 5, a marginal risk.
Localized flooding is another big concern. Rainfall totals will amount to 1 to 2 inches of rain widespread through Sunday, but under heavier downpours over 3 inches of rain is possible. The Weather Predicition Center has the entire Miami Valley under a slight risk for flooding Saturday afternoon and evening.
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