DAYTON — It’s almost that time of the year again, with Old Man Winter knocking on the door.
The Storm Center 7 team is up to the challenge of forecasting exactly how this winter will unfold. Last winter, parts of the Miami Valley saw their biggest snow in years.
And this winter could offer even more snow.
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Last winter, Dayton measured 22 inches of snow, which was slightly below normal snowfall. However, one storm was more measurable than others because parts of the Miami Valley saw more than 10 inches with just one storm.
However, achieving the conditions needed to have these big snowstorms is getting harder. Our colleagues at Climate Central show that we are seeing more days above normal than in previous decades, which means cold blasts are not lasting as long.
Something we always consider is El Niño and La Niña, and this winter looks to be influenced by La Niña, which means cooler-than-normal waters in the equatorial Pacific. If the La Nina provides moderate strength, history shows that the Miami Valley is more likely to have cooler than normal and wetter than normal conditions. Something snow lovers may like.
We are also taking a deeper look into how much snow has fallen in Siberia. Historically, when snow is above average in Siberia in September and October, winters end up colder east of the Rocky Mountains, and that includes the Miami Valley.
Last year, there was basically no snow in Siberia. However, this year the region has seen a lot of snow, which means it could favor a colder winter in the Miami Valley.
A conflicting factor to what we’ve discussed is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO. The PDO is negative, in fact more negative than it’s ever been, which means water along the west coast is cooler than average and way warmer than average south of Alaska.
A negative PDO typically means historically warmer and drier conditions during winter across the Miami Valley.
After digging into the data with the Storm Center 7 team, we’ve locked in the forecast for this winter. We’re calling for below normal temperatures and above normal snowfall across the Miami Valley.
Average snowfall in the region is 25 inches per winter season. If this forecast holds, this will be the snowiest winter the Miami Valley has seen since 2020-2021.
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