DAYTON, OH — UPDATE @ 5:30 p.m.:
Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Darke and Preble counties and Wayne County, Indiana, until 6:30 p.m.
UPDATE @ 5:21 p.m.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the entire Miami Valley until 12 a.m. (Includes Butler, Clark, Champaign, Clinton, Darke, Greene, Mercer, Miami, Montgomery, Shelby, Preble and Warren counties.)
UPDATE @ 5:06 p.m.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Randolph County, Indiana until 6 p.m.
UPDATE @ 4:03 p.m.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Randolph County, Indiana until 9 p.m.
INITIAL REPORT:
The Miami Valley may have to deal with an MCS, Mesoscale Convective System, this evening. Any MCS forecast is a tricky forecast.
These things almost have a “mind of their own” when it comes to their path. While it’s easy to forecast the conditions that cause them, forecasting where specifically they will go is extremely difficult.
Add to that, the margin between high impact and no impact is incredibly small. With that in mind, we’re going with a storm tracking alert for the possibility of an MCS.
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The cluster of storms is currently located in northern Indiana and has a history of producing winds to 100MPH along with embedded tornadoes.
This cluster will move south-southeast, possibly impacting areas west of I-75 between 7 PM and 11 PM. Weakening, or a shift farther west, will take the Miami Valley out of this risk for severe weather.
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Following the severe weather risk this evening, conditions trend drier for much of the week. The next chance for rain arrives Friday.
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